Is The Grass Always Greener? Life Without Mike Tomlin

After 19 seasons in Pittsburgh, Mike Tomlin has officially stepped down. Ask any Steelers fan and they’ll tell you they’ve been waiting for this moment for at least the last five years. The team has been in purgatory for most of the 2020s—just good enough to make the playoffs, never bad enough to get into the top of the draft. Better than the bad teams, and judging by the last several playoff exits, much worse than the class of the league. Mike Tomlin has also just tied all-time average coach Marvin Lewis for the most consecutive playoff losses (7). But does getting out of the Mike Tomlin business immediately mean greener pastures?

Per @AdamSchefter

There’s certainly a case for it. The Steelers need a reset. Maybe one season of tanking is enough to get a franchise quarterback in the door and get the train rolling again in Pittsburgh. However, that’s been the issue. While Mike Tomlin has no doubt been influential in roster building, that responsibility mostly falls to GM Omar Khan.

Since Big Ben’s retirement, here is the list of starting QBs in Pittsburgh: Kenny Pickett, Mitch Trubisky, Mason Rudolph, Justin Fields, Russell Wilson, and Aaron Rodgers. That’s five guys who are—or were—not good enough to secure real starting jobs anywhere else, plus one quarterback who was 41 when they signed him. There are very few quarterbacks who have started and won playoff games in this league that you couldn’t at least place in the top half of the NFL. The only one, in my opinion, would be Daniel Jones, and based on this year you could argue he’s undervalued. Steelers quarterback play has been well below that mark this decade. Since 2020, the Steelers rank 24th in both total passing touchdowns and total passing yards, per StatMuse. It’s genuinely impressive to stay above .500 with below-average quarterback play.

There are, of course, teams that can succeed without a quarterback who lights the world on fire. C.J. Stroud has by no means been playing great football this year, especially on Monday night. The Texans are overcoming that with an unbelievable defense. I don’t buy that it’s all scheme, either—the Texans have one of the lowest rates of coverage disguises in the league.

That’s simply a unit of elite players constantly disrupting.

So who are the Steelers’ elite players? T.J. Watt is, of course, always on the short list of the best players in the league. Cam Heyward is great for his age. After that, up and down the roster, I see a lot of average, outside of a solid defensive line. Watt, drafted in 2017, was the last player drafted by the Steelers to make a Pro Bowl as a Steeler. Other bright spots in recent years include Minkah Fitzpatrick and Jalen Ramsey, who made the Pro Bowl this season. The rest of the talent acquisition has been average, especially on the other side of the ball. The only All-Pro drafted since 2017 was George Pickens, who was replaced by the older, less talented, and more expensive DK Metcalf. There are very few true standouts on this roster. This has been a coach dragging below-average teams to the playoffs for many years.

The common refrain has been that a change of scenery was needed. That may be true—but not for the party most people think. A young roster with some talent and in need of stability should take a long, hard look at Mike Tomlin as its next coach if he decides to throw his hat in the ring.