College Football's Most Surprising Teams From 2025

We're going to take a break from the hate. Put down those twitter fingers, and put up a thumbs up. Looking back from the 2025 season, it's easy to point out who did not perform as well as they were expected. We're talking about the Penn States, Clemsons and Floridas of the lot. However, it may not be as obvious to recognize the teams who out kicked their coverage. We'll take a look at the preseason AP and compare it to the final regular season CFP rankings to find out the most surprising teams from 2025.

2025 Preseason per ESPN

The 2025 Preseason AP was wild. To think 2 of the top 5 teams didn't even finish in the top 25 is tickling. Equally as ticking is only 5 of the top 12 teams ended up in the playoffs. It's safe to say 2025 was a great year for the unexpected.

2025 CFP rankings after regular season per ESPN

I believe the best way to quantify the best teams who out performed their expectations is by taking a look at preseason rankings and compare them to the final CFP raking. I will also be taking into consideration the history of the program when making this list.

If there's a team like Texas A&M who maybe did jump 12 spots and earn a spot in the playoffs, but I don't believe thats too much of a surprise, I did not include them on this list. They did have a top 10 recruiting class (per 247 sports) and a second year coach who with momentum.

Or maybe there's Ole Miss who jumped from 21 to 6 by the end of the year. Impressive? Yes. Surprising? Not that much. With this being Lane Kiffin's 6th season at Ole Miss, a trip to the playoffs was the expectation. Ole Miss also had the 4th best transfer portal class (per 247 sports) coming into the season.

I'm looking for teams that no one was expecting to see at the top. Teams that historically have never finished where they finished. I will be using the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) which is basically a fancy computer that predicts a team's ability and future outcomes.

BYU

The recruiting class (43rd) and transfer portal (83rd) were disapointing for BYU in the offseason. Although they did have a solid defense returning, BYU started the season unranked and under the radar. A true freshman was named at quarterback, giving uncertainty to the offense. The FPI projected BYU to win 8.5 games.

The Cougars finished the season ranked 12th with a 12-2 record and a bowl game win. Go Mormons.

Indiana

This may be controversial to say with the amount of returning starters Indiana had and the addition of the heisman winner. The fact of the matter is Indiana just had an undefeated conference championship season. The same indiana who has the most losses in the FBS history. The same Indiana who finished last in the Big Ten 2 years ago. The same Indiana everyone said got exposed by Ohio State and Notre Dame last year, and were actually frauds. The FPI had Indiana winning 7.5 games this season... what.

Indiana finished the season ranked 1st with a 13-0 record and a conference championship. We'll see what they can do in the playoffs. Don't be surprised if they make a run.

Vanderbilt

Alright, if you say you were high off Vanderbilt coming into this season, I say you were high. No one saw this coming. They did have a top 35 transfer portal and Diego Pavia. But pair that with the 79th ranked recruiting class and that doesn't look too optimistic. The FPI predicted 5.5 wins coming into the season. The Commodores were coming off a 7-6 season, and came into this season aggressively unranked.

Exceeding expectations, Vanderbilt finished ranked 14th with a 10-2 record and a second place heisman finisher.

While not every team on this list can say they had the most successful season, they can all say they have surpassed expectations. No matter the final result of the College Football Playoffs, they can say this season was without question a success. Thumbs up for these fellas.